The year 2025 marked a turning point in global trade as the United States rolled out one of its most aggressive tariff measures in modern history.  Under this framework, India is subject to a 26% reciprocal tariff on its exports to the U.S., China faces the steepest rate – an initial 34% reciprocal tariff that, when combined with prior U.S. penalties (e.g., fentanyl-related duties), brings the effective U.S. levy on Chinese goods to about 54%​. President Trump even threatened an additional 50% on China, which would bring it to a staggering 104% total tariff on Chinese imports​. By comparison, tariffs on other major U.S. trade partners vary: for example, the European Union is set at 20%, Japan 24%, South Korea 25%, Vietnam 46%, Cambodia 49%, Bangladesh 37%, Thailand 36%, and Taiwan 32%​. Neighboring allies Canada and Mexico are exempt from these new reciprocal tariffs (their goods remain subject only to earlier targeted duties)​.

The United States is one of India’s largest export markets, so these tariffs carry significant implications across many Indian industries. Below, we examine the impact sector-by-sector, focusing on exports to the U.S., potential revenue/Earnings impacts, and how Indian firms and policymakers are responding.


The chemical industry is a cornerstone of India’s exports, from specialty chemicals to agro-chemicals and dyes. The U.S. is India’s largest chemicals customer, buying about $2.9 billion of Indian chemicals in 2023-24 (roughly 14% of India’s $20.4 billion chemical exports)​.

Shrimp Industry: Big Blow, Bigger Competitors:


India is the world’s second-largest exporter of seafood (shrimp in particular), and the U.S. is the biggest buyer of Indian shrimp. This sector now faces one of the harshest tariff shocks. As per information, the US has decided to impose an anti-dumping duty of 2.49%, countervailing duty of 5.77% and reciprocal tariff of 26% which will raise the tariff to a total of 34.26%. In contrast, India’s smaller competitor Ecuador faces only about a 13.78% duty on its shrimp exports to the U.S.​ This huge gap – Indian shrimp effectively carrying a ~20 percentage-point higher tax – severely undermines India’s price competitiveness in the U.S. market. For context, India supplied an estimated 35–40% of the shrimp consumed in the U.S. last year​.

While not directly subject to tariffs (which apply to goods, not services), India’s IT and software services sector is indirectly exposed to the U.S. trade war through its reliance on American clients. The United States accounts for roughly 50–60% of the revenue for leading Indian IT firms like Infosys, TCS, Wipro, HCL Tech, and Tech Mahindra​. These companies provide outsourcing, consulting, and software development services to virtually every U.S. industry – from banking to retail to manufacturing. If those client industries face higher costs or slowing growth due to tariffs, they are likely to tighten IT budgets.

The Indian pharmaceutical sector, a global powerhouse in generics supplying over 45% of U.S. prescriptions and generating $8.7–$13 billion in annual exports to the U.S., is facing heightened uncertainty due to potential tariff impositions. In early April 2025, Announcment  that pharmaceuticals, along with sectors like semiconductors and copper, were excluded from a round of “reciprocal” tariffs announced by the U.S. administration. These tariffs targeted imports from various countries, with rates like 26% on India,  The exemption provided temporary relief to Indian drugmakers, as it preserved their tariff-free access to the U.S. market, where generics currently face minimal duties. This was seen as a pragmatic move, given the U.S.’s dependence on India for affordable medicines and the potential for tariffs to spike drug prices for American consumers. Days after the exemption reports, statements from U.S. leadership, particularly U.S. President Donald Trump, signaled a reversal. On April 8–9, 2025, Trump announced plans for a “major” tariff on pharmaceutical imports, emphasizing a goal to incentivize drug manufacturing in the U.S. and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers like India and China. A 90-day tariff pause, granted on April 9, preserved access to the U.S. market for over 75 exempt countries, including India, while a steep 125% tariff on Chinese created an opportunity for Indian pharmaceuticals companies to capture additional U.S. market share.

Companies like Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s, Aurobindo Pharma, Lupin, and Cipla, which derive 28–46% of their revenues from the U.S., could face 3–6% EPS erosion under a 10% tariff scenario, with smaller players being more vulnerable. Tariffs would raise U.S. drug costs—by an estimated $0.12 per pill—and threaten India’s cost advantage.

While China remains a key supplier of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), contributing 13–15% of those used in U.S. generics—including critical drugs like antibiotics and statins—its role in finished formulations is limited due to fewer FDA-approved facilities and a focus on raw materials. The 104% U.S. tariff on Chinese pharma imports has effectively priced most Chinese APIs out of the U.S. market, offering India a strategic advantage, as it may face a lower tariff range of 10–26%.

India, already supplying 20–25% of APIs consumed in the U.S., is well-positioned to step in, especially as it scales up domestic production under the $1.3 billion Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme covering 55 API projects. This shift benefits Indian firms like Divi’s Laboratories and Laurus Labs, which could see 10–15% annual revenue growth by replacing Chinese suppliers. The tariff disparity could also enable Indian players like Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s, and Aurobindo Pharma to capture an additional $1–2 billion in U.S. market share, boosting revenues by 5–8% and margins by 1–3%, particularly for those with strong U.S. pipelines.

With over 600 FDA-approved facilities and increasing API self-reliance, India is well-placed to fill the gap left by China, strengthening its position in U.S. supply chains under the “China Plus One” strategy. However, challenges such as capacity constraints, a 30–35% reliance on Chinese APIs, and the risk of potential U.S. tariffs on Indian pharma could limit these gains, potentially leading to higher generic drug prices and margin pressures.


India’s auto and components sector faces mixed impacts. On one hand, higher tariffs on Chinese goods offer India a competitive edge in exports to the U.S. But existing Indian exports (~$6.8B in FY24) may still feel heat from indirect cost pressures.

Meanwhile, the “China Plus One” strategy is pushing global and some Chinese firms to shift base from China. India is a preferred option, but regulatory roadblocks have stalled major Chinese auto investments like BYD and Great Wall Motor.

India is countering this by pushing trade negotiations with the U.S. and expanding its PLI schemes to attract component manufacturing. This could position India as a rising alternative in global auto supply chains over the long term.


Global industrial giants like Apple are increasingly shifting manufacturing to India as part of the “China Plus One” strategy, driven by rising U.S.-China trade tensions and a push to diversify supply chains. Apple now produces over 14% of its iPhones in India through suppliers like Foxconn and Pegatron, leveraging India’s PLI incentives and growing infrastructure. Other firms across electronics, aerospace, and automotive sectors—such as Samsung, Boeing, and Siemens—are also expanding their India footprint. While regulatory challenges remain, India is rapidly emerging as a key global manufacturing hub.


The recent 27% U.S. tariff on Indian textile and apparel imports poses short-term challenges by increasing costs and impacting order volumes, as buyers seek discounts to offset the higher landing costs. However, India is relatively better placed compared to competitors like Vietnam, Bangladesh, and China, which face even steeper tariffs. This opens a strategic opportunity for India to capture a larger share of U.S. sourcing. Domestically, the Indian government has imposed higher duties on cheap Chinese fabric imports while easing norms for technical textile machinery to support local manufacturing. Overall, while the tariff presents pricing pressure, India could emerge as a preferred sourcing hub if it navigates the global trade shifts effectively.


The 2025 reciprocal tariff regime has significantly altered global trade dynamics, with India facing a 26% effective tariff on its exports to the U.S. This has put considerable pressure on sectors like chemicals, seafood, textiles, auto components, and industrial goods. Companies with high U.S. exposure are witnessing margin compression, order deferrals, and increased competitive threats, particularly from countries with lower tariff burdens.

Despite the challenges, India is actively responding through diplomatic negotiations, market diversification, and strategic localization efforts by affected industries. While the short-term impact is disruptive, the long-term outlook depends on how effectively India recalibrates its trade strategy and how quickly exporters adapt to shifting global demand. If managed well, this disruption could pave the way for stronger, more diversified export pathways and greater resilience in India's trade ecosystem.

Trump Tarrif War: India hit with 26% tariff; China faces up to 145%

It’s a diamond created in a controlled lab environment using advanced tech to mimic natural diamond formation. Unlike mined diamonds, they’re made in weeks, not billions of years, but share the same sparkle and durability.

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Yes! Lab-grown diamonds (LGDs) are chemically, physically, and optically identical to natural diamonds. Not simulants like cubic zirconia—certified real by GIA, IGI, & SGL. Only diff? Origin.

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Types & methods to make LGDs? Two main methods:  


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HPHT (High-Pressure High Temperature): Mimics Earth’s conditions.  

How long does it take to make a lab-grown diamond?

A lab-grown diamond typically takes between a few weeks to a couple of months to grow, depending on the desired size and quality, with most falling within a time frame of 6 to 10 weeks.


Difference between natural & lab-grown diamonds? Here’s a table:

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LGDs are graded like natural diamonds (4Cs: Carat, Cut, Color, Clarity) by labs like:  

SGL (Solitaire Gemmological Laboratories)




The global lab-grown diamonds market size was valued at $24.0 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $59.2 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 9.6% from 2023 to 2032. LGDs are 10% of the diamond market now, growing fast due to affordability & ethics. China leads production (56%), India follows (15%).

The India lab-grown diamond jewelry market was valued at US$ 264.5 million in 2022. Over the next ten years, lab-grown diamond jewelry sales will rise at 14.8% CAGR. The total market size is set to increase from US$ 299.9 million in 2023 to 1,192.3 million by 2033.

Here is the data on the rise in exports of lab-grown diamonds from India between 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.

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India holds 15% of global LGD production, making it the 2nd largest producer. Exports surged 50% in 2023 (6.45M carats), showing strong growth.

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India’s Leadership in Lab-Grown Diamonds:

 Will lab-grown diamonds shine as bright as natural diamonds?

Once mined, raw materials are processed into primary metals like steel, aluminum, and copper.

Metals are then shaped & processed into pipes, tubes, wires, and structural products for industries.

With sustainability in focus, metal recycling is gaining importance. Recycling metals is cheaper & eco-friendly, reducing dependency on new mining.


Is the Metal Rally Just Getting Started?  

India's Semiconductor Ambitions: Building A Global Hub for Innovation And Manufacturing

The Growing Semiconductor Industry in India

Semiconductors: The Core of Modern Technology

Semiconductors, also known as chips, are vital components in a wide range of products, from computers and cloud servers to smartphones, electronic appliances, medical devices, automotive systems, and industrial automation. These chips, essential for transistors, diodes, and integrated circuits (ICs), form the backbone of modern electronics. Given their strategic and economic significance, only a handful of countries have established semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. Others are striving to reduce their dependence on imports and achieve self-sufficiency. India, currently reliant on imports from Taiwan, China, Korea, and Vietnam, is making rapid strides to become a key player in the global semiconductor industry.

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Scope of the Indian Semiconductor Industry

According to a Deloitte report, India's semiconductor market is expected to reach $55 billion by 2026 and grow to $100.2 billion by 2032. Over 60% of this growth will be driven by industries such as smartphones, wearables, electric vehicles (EVs), computing, and data storage.

Indian Government’s Focus on the Semiconductor Sector

In 2021, the Indian government approved a $10 billion initiative to promote semiconductor manufacturing, attracting substantial investments. The initiative is part of the country's efforts to become a global electronics manufacturing hub, with incentives worth $30.16 billion. A significant milestone came on December 15, 2021, when the government launched a $10 billion package to boost semiconductor and display manufacturing, offering attractive incentives for Silicon semiconductor fabs, display fabs, compound semiconductors, silicon photonics, sensors, and semiconductor design.

To further strengthen the ecosystem, the government launched the "India Semiconductor Mission (ISM)," led by global industry experts. This mission aims to implement long-term strategies for a sustainable semiconductor and display ecosystem. By April 30, 2021, more than 20 semiconductor companies had expressed interest in setting up manufacturing plants in India. Additionally, the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) is encouraging domestic companies, start-ups, and MSMEs to participate in the Design Linked Incentive (DLI) scheme, which supports chip design, product development, and deployment.

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Revised Program for Semiconductor and Display Manufacturing

On September 21, 2022, the Indian government revised its semiconductor program, offering uniform fiscal support of 50% of the project cost across all technology nodes for setting up semiconductor fabs. This support extends to advanced packaging and compound semiconductors, further incentivizing capital expenditure.

Current Semiconductor Facilities in India

India has established five semiconductor manufacturing units, with new facilities on the way. Here are some key developments:

Tata Electronics, in partnership with Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC), is building an $11 billion semiconductor fab in Dholera, Gujarat. The facility will produce 28 nm chips, primarily for automotive, computing, and AI industries. However, it will not produce cutting-edge nodes due to technological limitations.

Tata Semiconductor Assembly and Test Pvt Ltd (TSAT)

TSAT is setting up a $3.21 billion semiconductor unit in Morigaon, Assam, focused on advanced packaging technologies like flip chip and ISIP. With a capacity of 48 million units per day, the facility will serve industries such as automotive, EVs, and consumer electronics.

Tata Electronics signed an MoU with Tokyo Electron (TEL) on September 9, 2024, for the procurement of equipment for its semiconductor facilities in Gujarat and Assam. The partnership includes workforce training and R&D initiatives.

CG Power & Industrial Solutions, part of the Murugappa Group, has partnered with Renesas Electronics America Inc. and Stars Microelectronics to establish an OSAT facility in Sanand, Gujarat. With a $791 million investment, this joint venture will focus on packaging chips for consumer, industrial, automotive, and power applications.

In September 2024, Kaynes Semicon received approval to set up an OSAT/ATMP semiconductor unit in Sanand, Gujarat, with an investment of $394.15 million. This unit, under the India Semiconductor Mission, will produce 6 million chips daily for automotive, EVs, and other industries. The company is also collaborating with IIT Bombay to establish an R&D center for package research.

India’s semiconductor industry is gaining momentum through strong government initiatives and private sector collaborations. With a focus on developing local manufacturing and design capabilities, India is on track to become a key player in the global semiconductor ecosystem. This growth will support critical industries like automotive, EVs, telecom, and consumer electronics, further positioning India as a vital contributor to the global semiconductor supply chain.

Explore India's rapidly growing semiconductor industry, driven by government initiatives, private sector partnerships, and a focus on innovation and self-reliance. Learn about the key developments, investments, and future potential of India as a global semiconductor hub.

India's Semiconductor Industry: Emerging Global Hub for Innovation and Manufacturing

India's Semiconductor Revolution: Paving the Way to Global Leadership

The Rise of Lithium-Ion Batteries: Powering the EV Revolution

Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries have become the core of vehicle electrification, thanks to their advanced electrochemical properties. These rechargeable batteries rely on the reversible movement of lithium ions to store and release energy. Over the past decade, they have fueled the rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs), cementing their role in the green energy ecosystem.

However, the surging demand for EVs has created massive pressure on the global battery supply chain. As the EV market continues to expand, the need to diversify into newer, more sustainable battery technologies becomes critical, with sodium-ion batteries emerging as a strong alternative to complement or replace lithium-ion in the future.

The Roadblocks: India's Challenges in Battery Production

India faces a major obstacle in its efforts to develop a robust battery production ecosystem—an insufficient supply of essential raw materials such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium. These are critical for manufacturing EV batteries, yet India's reserves are limited. Significant exploration efforts, which could span several years, are required before these resources can be tapped for commercial use.

China's Dominance in the Lithium and EV Battery Market

China has firmly established itself as a global leader in the EV battery industry, with manufacturers like CATL, BYD, CALB, Gotion High-Tech, Sunwoda, and Farasis collectively holding 60.4% of the market in 2022, up from 48.2% in 2021. Chinese companies have secured direct access to key raw materials by acquiring mines in resource-rich countries, enabling them to dominate the supply chain for lithium, nickel, and cobalt.

Establishing the necessary infrastructure for battery production requires enormous capital investments, from mining operations to the construction of large-scale gigafactories. For instance, China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt invested $422 million in acquiring a lithium mine in Zimbabwe and an additional $300 million in processing facilities. However, it can take years before these facilities become profitable, with the average time from resource discovery to commercial production being 16 years globally.

Specialized Expertise and Long-Term Commitment

Building a successful EV battery supply chain not only demands significant financial investment but also specialized expertise. China has been ahead in this space, focusing on EV technology development since 2001. Indian companies and the government are working to close the gap, but creating a competitive local battery manufacturing ecosystem will require both time and sustained efforts.

India’s Push Towards Energy Independence

Despite the challenges, India is making strides toward energy sustainability and EV adoption. The country aims to electrify 30% of its vehicle fleet by 2030. The domestic EV market is expected to grow at a staggering 49% CAGR, with annual sales projected to hit 10 million by the end of the decade. However, these ambitions hinge on solving the critical issues of high battery costs, raw material shortages, and the absence of domestic cell technology.

Breaking Down the Components: How a Lithium-Ion Battery Works

The anode is one of the two electrodes in the battery. It is typically made of a carbon-based material, such as graphite. During discharging, lithium ions from the anode move toward the cathode through the electrolyte, releasing electrical energy.

The cathode is the other electrode in the battery. It is composed of various materials depending on the type of lithium-ion battery. Common cathode materials include lithium cobalt oxide (LiCoO2), lithium manganese oxide (LiMn204), and lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4). During discharging, the cathode accepts lithium ions from the anode.

The separator is a porous membrane positioned between the anode and cathode. It is typically made of a polymer material that allows the passage of lithium ions while preventing direct contact between the anode and cathode. This prevents short-circuits and ensures safe operation.

The electrolyte is a lithium salt (e.g., lithium hexafluorophosphate, LiPF6) dissolved in a solvent (typically an organic solvent). The electrolyte conducts lithium ions between the anode and cathode during charge and discharge cycles. It is a critical component that enables ion transport in the battery.

 Thin sheets or foils made of conductive materials (usually aluminum for the cathode and copper for the anode) are used as current collectors. These collect and distribute the electrical current produced or consumed during charging and discharging.

 The casing is the outer shell that houses all the components of the battery. It provides physical protection and helps maintain the structural integrity of the battery. The casing is typically made of metal or plastic and is sealed to prevent leakage.

Electrode Binders and Conductive Additives:

 In the anode and cathode, electrode binders and conductive additives are used to hold the active electrode materials in place and enhance electrical conductivity within the electrodes.

 In modern lithium-ion batteries, safety mechanisms such as pressure relief vents are included to release excess pressure in case of overheating or overcharging, helping prevent thermal runaway and related safety issues.

 The battery has terminal connections, usually on the exterior of the casing, that allow for the connection of wires or connectors to the external circuit.

 To prevent electrical contact between the various components, insulating materials are used within the battery to ensure that only the desired electrical pathways are active.

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Here's a comparison of lithium batteries with other common battery types in a table format:

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This table highlights the key differences and considerations for choosing between lithium batteries and other common battery types.

Battery Production: Key Steps in the Manufacturing Process

The manufacturing of lithium-ion cells involves a multi-step process, from preparing the electrodes to packaging the final cells. Key stages include:

 – Coating metal foils with active materials like lithium metal oxide and graphite.

 – Applying the slurry to foils and drying them.

 – Shaping and arranging the electrodes with separators.

 – Placing electrodes into the cell casing and sealing it.

 – Running initial charge cycles to form the SEI layer and conducting safety tests.

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India’s Lithium Discoveries: A Boost for the EV Sector

India's discovery of lithium reserves in Jammu and Kashmir, along with Degana, Rajasthan, offers a game-changing opportunity to meet 80% of its domestic demand. This reduces reliance on China and can significantly lower EV production costs, making electric vehicles more affordable. By harnessing these reserves, India aims to establish a strong domestic lithium supply chain, reduce import dependence, and drive sustainable growth in its EV industry.    


India's Lithium-Ion Battery Market Growth 

India's lithium-ion battery market is projected to reach nearly $150 billion by 2030. The industry is expected to grow from 2.9 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2018 to approximately 132 GWh by 2030, with a robust CAGR of 35.5%.                                                 

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